IPCC-Klimamodell unbrauchbar
Eine aktuelle Studie von Koutsoyiannis, Efstratiadis, Mamassis und Christofidesis ergab, dass die vom IPCC verwendeten Klimamodelle unbrauchbare Prognoseinstrumente sind."“At the annual and the climatic (30-year) scales, GCM interpolated series are irrelevant to reality. GCMs do not reproduce natural over-year fluctuations and, generally, underestimate the variance and the Hurst coefficient of the observed series. Even worse, when the GCM time series imply a Hurst coefficient greater than 0.5, this results from a monotonic trend, whereas in historical data the high values of the Hurst coefficient are a result of large-scale over-year fluctuations (i.e. successions of upward and downward ‘trends’. The huge negative values of coefficients of efficiency show that model predictions are much poorer than an elementary prediction based on the time average. This makes future climate projections at the examined locations not credible."
Die ganze Studie gibt es hier.
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daran wird es liegen :)
daran wird es liegen :)
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11.08.2008 - 14:51 Uhr
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